Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
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The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
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The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
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I was surprised that the relationship between intelligence and brain structure changed so much as a child grows up. In early childhood, the smartest children had a thinner cortex -- this is the opposite of what you'd expect. By late childhood, the pattern had changed completely.
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The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.
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Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
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Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
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Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.
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The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.
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Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
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Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.
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We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
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It's very early to be drawing too many conclusions on the high street after the Christmas and New Year trading period. It's going to take some time for the full picture to unfold.
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Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.