Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
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Everybody's looking toward consumer confidence in the States tomorrow, followed by other data later in the week.
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The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.
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Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
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We will see nervous trading ahead, as we have seen from Cisco that the worst is not yet over for corporate earnings.
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It was a case of the panic being overdone, ... U.S. institutional investors were going to sell their European assets, but the coordinated action removed the fear about a weaker euro.
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The strength of high street activity during the month (November) reflects an abrupt turn in the weather driving demand for winter wear.
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And we find the most intelligent children started off with a relatively thin cortex, but it then got thicker relatively rapidly, reached its peak thickness in certain key areas several years later but then also got thinner quicker.
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There's still a lot of confusion about what the sectors mean. I think it's going to take some time for the individual analysts to become familiar with their new companies.
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Continued developments in Iraq will be the main factor driving markets.
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We think the chances of a hike next week are virtually zero.
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Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.
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The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.
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We think consumer spending will slow down and we're starting to see some evidence of that.
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People with agile minds tend to have a very agile cortex.