Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
couple critical data deals due expect january numbers pay remain signs
The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
coming committee continue debate downside output rates received surprises upside
The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.
although bank clear hold optimistic planning rates view
Although it is clear the Bank is planning to keep rates on hold for now, our view is the MPC is still too optimistic on growth.
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A lot of research in intelligence has not been that great. I would hope by this modest descriptive study to put things on an empirical footing.
boost both close effect european fairly given markets overnight positive quite street wall
There was quite a positive effect on Wall Street overnight with both the Dow and the S&P fairly close to five-year highs, and that's given Continental European markets a boost first thing.
corporate fears including increase neutral personal taxation virtually
As a result, fears over a significant near-term increase in personal or corporate taxation have virtually disappeared. Most expectations, including our own are for a broadly neutral stance.
growth last services stepped surprise upside
The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
balance expect hold inflation last likely month news past rates remain report steady strong turned
Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
inflation last likely rates report steady strong
Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
base continues course economy percent present rates remain rest unless view
Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
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Children with the most agile minds have the most rapidly changing cortex.