Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
believe differ expect high hold majority members official peter rates recent remain run spending street stronger
While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.
consumer evidence slow spending starting
We think consumer spending will slow down and we're starting to see some evidence of that.
almost base certainly hold rates remain
Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.
above cut economy grow interest rates reluctant signs
If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.
agile changing children minds rapidly
Children with the most agile minds have the most rapidly changing cortex.
birth born brain certain children environment genes influence inherit intelligence interact less likely might trajectory
Children might inherit certain genes that incline them to interact with their environment in very 'stimulating' ways. This stimulation could then influence brain development. . . . What is less likely is the idea that we are born with a certain set of genes which 'fix' at birth our intelligence and the trajectory of our brain development.
economy global last rally
The global economy has done pretty well and we had an end-of-year rally last year, which is continuing.
cannot changing economy economy-and-economics five growing next pace quarters situation year
The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so.
account current deficit due earnings greater overseas
The current account deficit was very disappointing. What we hadn't factored in was the greater outflow due to overseas earnings in the UK.
call clearly expected figures interest july near pressures question raise rates whether
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
although core expected figures improvement petrol prices rate
The figures are better than expected and although petrol prices have come down, there is an improvement in core rate of inflation.
background bag despite figures general higher inflation input low mixed output price quite remains striking
The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs.
below changing five growth main next output point quarters though trend year
The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so,