Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
base continues course economy percent present rates remain rest unless view
Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
above cut economy grow interest rates reluctant signs
If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.
economy global last rally
The global economy has done pretty well and we had an end-of-year rally last year, which is continuing.
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The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so.
growth last services stepped surprise upside
The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
act boom december gone january marks retail slow spencer uk
Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.
bang line market
The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.
balance expect hold inflation last likely month news past rates remain report steady strong turned
Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
inflation last likely rates report steady strong
Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
christmas drawing early full high picture street time trading year
It's very early to be drawing too many conclusions on the high street after the Christmas and New Year trading period. It's going to take some time for the full picture to unfold.
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Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.