Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
headline peak seen
What this suggests is that we may have already seen the peak of headline inflation.
continued houses line shows
This shows a continued need for new houses in line with the recommendations of the Barker report.
account taking
This was extraordinarily weak, even taking into account the seasonal unreliability of the data.
again although caution early happen inflation interest next rates until view
This underpins our view that interest rates will have to come down again although the MPC caution on inflation suggests that's not going to happen until early next year.
against bank far mark optimism question rebound recovery year
The rebound so far this year is unconvincing and that has to place a question mark against the Bank of England's optimism for a recovery in consumption this year.
cut door next open perhaps rates soon
We think the door is still open for a cut in rates over the next two months, perhaps as soon as next month.
believe differ expect high hold majority members official peter rates recent remain run spending street stronger
While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.
both chance charged components couple input month next price prices rates
Both the input price and prices charged components are up on the month as well so this reduces the chance that rates will come down over the next couple of months.
boost general given next price retailers share statement
The Next statement has given a boost to general retailers and the Next share price in particular.
brought month move next rates soon surprised whether
The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
christmas drawing early full high picture street time trading year
It's very early to be drawing too many conclusions on the high street after the Christmas and New Year trading period. It's going to take some time for the full picture to unfold.
august bag consistent easing economic mixed news rates remaining since
Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.
confidence consumer data followed later looking states toward
Everybody's looking toward consumer confidence in the States tomorrow, followed by other data later in the week.
agile almost minds
It's almost like the most agile minds have the most agile cortex.