Ned Riley
Ned Riley
almost placed scary starting technology until utopia
It did not make me feel very comfortable because of the valuations that were starting to be placed on these technology stocks. They were almost discounting utopia until the end of this century, and that really is a scary scenario.
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We're nearing an inflection point. I think the market will start to work higher as investors become more comfortable with higher oil prices -- particularly if oil can fall below $50 -- and after the presidential election.
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As we start the new year, we could see tech get a slight boost, but then I think investors will turn to consumer stocks as the economy continues to recover.
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I also feel very strongly that Procter & Gamble's strategy is not going to be linked only to Procter & Gamble, ... We will see other Dow-type companies that either have some economic sensitivity or a slowing of revenue growth start to announce restructurings.
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Investors are starting to exercise one of the golden rules of investing, ... And that's buying when the news is the bleakest.
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I clearly think this is just another manifestation of a recovery that continues to be underestimated by the Wall Street community. Not only Cisco, but the whole tech sector has blown away estimates. I would be truly surprised if the market doesn't have strong futures and a positive start Thursday.
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The differentiation between the biggest and the best companies with the most name recognition is a development that usually occurs during a market correction and when uncertainty starts to creep it, ... This trend will continue.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.