Ned Riley
Ned Riley
economy slowing tech
What we have now is an economy that's slowing down. I think we're going to see some cyclicality to tech earnings.
economy slowing tech
What we have now is an economy that's slowing down, ... I think we're going to see some cyclicality to tech earnings.
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Today's market and the market in September reflect skepticism around the sustainability of this incredible trend in demand in the economy and tech products in particular, and also in profitability.
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There is a serious shift going from the growth companies in the old economy to growth companies in the new economy that have been quite tarnished over the past nine months. The tech recession was the catalyst and we are genuinely seeing a slowdown in old economy sectors.
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We're going to see more of the same for the next few weeks, unless something comes in that indicates a pick-up in activity in the economy or on the corporate level,
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We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up.
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As we start the new year, we could see tech get a slight boost, but then I think investors will turn to consumer stocks as the economy continues to recover.
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The only concern I do have is I'd like to see a couple more months (of data) put together here before we declare this torrid, hot economy as into another phase of gearing down. I'm not as optimistic yet that we have slowed everything.
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I think the Fed has at least one further tightening in June and another one in August. Until the American consumer changes his or her outlook on further income growth, the economy is going to remain vibrant and inflation will continue to rise.
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It is another piece of good news in that it leaves the Fed in an unfettered position to exercise more discretion in monetary easing. Because the economy has displayed such weakness and inflation has been non-existent with the exception of energy-related prices, the short-term inflation number may be less relevant.
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I think some buyers have actually been attracted to the fact that the market has been down so big (this week) even though there may be extensive damage as a result of Rita. Clearly people are concluding things will continue to go on and that the economy is resilient enough to take another blow,
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If the Fed is committed to slowing the economy, then I do think demand for technology will slow.
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The Fed is still maintaining its supportive stance. They are not going to raise rates until the economy begins to generate more jobs.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.