Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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Fears about the next scandal seem to have eased. It's not very exciting, but it's a period where a lack of news is almost good.
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Competition's going to get a lot more intense, ... We know that one of the biggest products, Viagra, has been a blockbuster drug and there's more competition coming in next year. There's a new drug going to be introduced next year, and that supposedly has a much more effective impact on patients.
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We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable.
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We're going to see more of the same for the next few weeks, unless something comes in that indicates a pick-up in activity in the economy or on the corporate level,
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We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up.
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A lot of people should not pay attention to the ups and downs daily because clearly they cannot discern the next week or two weeks in terms of trends in the markets. Where do you want to put your money long term, and I stress long term. We always advocate a very strong diversification.
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That's imposing a ceiling of sorts on any rally. But the good news is that at the end of next week, tax-loss related selling may abate dramatically.
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I think you're going to continue to see this until we get through this whole period where there are these expectations that are clearly different than what reality is going to produce next year. Microsoft is only another example.
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I think by the first quarter of next year you're going to see a much better profits picture and that's what the market's telling us here.
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Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.
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The May payrolls report will be the celebrated one next week, and there may be some controversy around it.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.