Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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The surprising improvements in the latest employment, manufacturing and durable goods data Wednesday, all leading indicators, put the ingredients in place for the market to maintain an upward bias.
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I don't believe in these kinds of indicators, but I do believe in momentum. The momentum in January was good and I do think we will have an up year, but not because of an indicator.
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Theoretically, the incumbent wants the economic recovery to coincide with the election, but really it's a coincidence that those years tend to be positive. I think it's more that there's a good feeling overall during that year -- everyone is promised the world and no one says anything bad to upset the markets.
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There has been a dearth of negative news, which to the market has to be a sign of good news.
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It's surprisingly quiet, which is a good thing after Friday's rally. If you look at the mutual fund inflows, there's money coming into the market and demand is still strong.
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It's surprisingly quiet, which is a good thing after Friday's rally, ... If you look at the mutual fund inflows, there's money coming into the market and demand is still strong.
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That's imposing a ceiling of sorts on any rally. But the good news is that at the end of next week, tax-loss related selling may abate dramatically.
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It is another piece of good news in that it leaves the Fed in an unfettered position to exercise more discretion in monetary easing. Because the economy has displayed such weakness and inflation has been non-existent with the exception of energy-related prices, the short-term inflation number may be less relevant.
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People have been using a rotational strategy -- but eventually you'll have a peaceful coexistence between the two because the 'old economy' stocks will have very good relative earnings that people can attach to,
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I do think we're searching for a bottom on the Nasdaq and the action looks good so far. I see a lot of stocks doing well and people are going bottom fishing. Interest rates matter and clearly the Federal Reserve needs to focus on the Nasdaq.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.