Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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This is clearly a holiday-impacted trading day, as volume indicates. I do think the market is acting extremely well. The Christmas rally that people eagerly awaited is here, but it's taking on something of a more subtle tone.
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Today we're in the bottom- fishing mode and there are a lot of people who think the tech correction is complete and we've established our lows for this cycle.
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There was a combination of things that really depressed it. One was Hewlett-Packard's shortfall and we had a sympathetic sell-off using the political environment as a backdrop. Ironically, IBM remained the stalwart and it probably gave the notion of stability to the tech sector and we saw some people looking for bargains.
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.
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This is sort-of the real dead period for the quarter and it's also the summer, and a lot of people are on vacation,
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This is one of the most challenging periods for markets I've seen in a while. Short-term fundamentals are improving, but socio-political overtones are pulling people away from the positives. Even with closing a little higher, today's (Wednesday) activity was just an extension of what we've seen the whole week.
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This is one of the most challenging periods for markets I've seen in a while, ... Short-term fundamentals are improving, but socio-political overtones are pulling people away from the positives. Even with closing a little higher, today's (Wednesday) activity was just an extension of what we've seen the whole week.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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There's a pause today, but the bulls still have the upper hand. The economic releases continue to support the case for strong economic growth through 2004 and a continued recovery in the labor market. Yet there are still plenty of skeptical people out there, suggesting the market could continue to build on the gains.
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It's a function of anxiety on the part of investors. People are saying that capital spending is weakening and the commitment to longer-term capital has waned a bit.
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A lot of people should not pay attention to the ups and downs daily because clearly they cannot discern the next week or two weeks in terms of trends in the markets. Where do you want to put your money long term, and I stress long term. We always advocate a very strong diversification.
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We're going to have more people talking about the Fed becoming less aggressive, which will be neutral or negative for the market because the market has been feeding off low interest rates. I don't think the Fed commentary is going to be as predictable and direct as the last meeting.
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Clearly people are anxious. Psychologically, the market is prepared to rally, but it needs clear evidence of a positive trend to do so, particularly on the first day of the (fourth) quarter.
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We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up.