Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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Fears about the next scandal seem to have eased. It's not very exciting, but it's a period where a lack of news is almost good.
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It's something of an uplifting experience for us in the investing community to see that companies really are taking their accounting seriously. An exercise that CEOs seemed to treat as rote and automatic is viewed totally differently.
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It seems like there was massive indifference on the part of buyers, ... There were positive macro developments, but the market didn't react, and then program trading kicked in during the last hour.
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There are certain areas that seem to be giving a little better story, not a great story, but stabilization.
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I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered. Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.
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The Dow seems to be lifted because people are trying to resurrect the old growth stocks and giving them another try as a safe place to hide. The perception is that some of these companies are not currency- or energy-dependent enough for earnings to get hurt.
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The fundamentals are clearly what investors continue to fall back on for their leadership and that leadership seems to be resting with the 'old economy' and the Dow.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.