Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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I think the story is going to be the same going forward. We're going to see the tech companies reporting well. But the high interest rates we've seen so far have undermined some of the financial stocks and drug stocks.
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This is an opportunity, ... You can find some health care stocks with price- earnings ratios, ironically, more cheap than they are in the cyclical area. The health care group of stocks that I like sell about 28 times earnings and have growth rates of 14 percent.
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Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.
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The Fed is still maintaining its supportive stance. They are not going to raise rates until the economy begins to generate more jobs.
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I do think we're searching for a bottom on the Nasdaq and the action looks good so far. I see a lot of stocks doing well and people are going bottom fishing. Interest rates matter and clearly the Federal Reserve needs to focus on the Nasdaq.
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I do think that there are a group of investors that have changed their opinion about interest rates and that is extremely positive for the market. We clearly do better in a falling interest rate environment.
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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.
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The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.
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These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.
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These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.
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The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,
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Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,
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The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.
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Enron is providing the counterforce right now. It's undermining a number of industries such as utilities, banks, insurance and energy companies.