Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
bought buying cars earlier later people thinking year
With these discounts out there, people who were thinking of buying cars later in the year bought them earlier instead.
question year
There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
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There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
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When India was the new trend, companies had a gold-rush mentality. Now companies are taking a more mature, sober attitude.
energy prices rest spill
Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
line reasoning
I think that whole line of reasoning is overdone.
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I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
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It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
building pressures
That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
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We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
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The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,