Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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Some 20 percent of the nation's refining capacity seems to be right in Rita's path. If that gets disrupted at all, then gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas and home heating oil will surge higher.
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It is going to be a tough winter for many seniors. Not only will they face higher Medicare premiums, but record gasoline prices and higher home heating bills as well.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
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The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out, ... Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
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And you know at these kind of prices, there's lots of money to be made. So I'm sure they're gonna work triple overtime to get their facilities up and running again.