Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Four days ain't enough, ... It's still too soon for investors to jump back on board until you get more confirmation from the stock market. We've had so many false starts before.
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(This) week is going to give us a lot of important information about the start of the third quarter,
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The good news was good enough to more than offset the worries about wages and Federal Reserve policy. There is an emotional component to the market today. Some speculative spirits are starting to stir.
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It's a year-end rally in anticipation that there will be some new money coming into the market as we start the new year.
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Time to dig in and start to go.
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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If you separate out all the sectors of the market, it's no longer the case that technology is the most overvalued sector of the market, health care and energy actually carry higher valuations than technology now. So we are starting to get the levels overall in technology that really make some sense. And interestingly enough, if you take it even further, if you go to the individual stocks, stocks like Sun, Cisco, Texas Instruments, Oracle -- great names, they're starting to get to levels which, again, don't call them cheap, but call them cheaper and interesting,
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The conditions for the restarting of the bull market, or the start of a new bull market, which is how you should look at it, those conditions do not exist. Not yet, and that's why the markets went down yesterday despite what the Fed said,
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The market is worried that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates well into 2006 and possibly make a policy mistake. If you look at housing starts they're very strong. Everyone knows the unemployment rate is low and the Fed is uncomfortable with that.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.