Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.
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Usually, when you have a stock market mania, it's driven largely by individual investors borrowing money to buy stocks at prices that are too high. And usually, when a bubble becomes unwound, it's because of margin calls.
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Trying to manage money in this environment, you can't imagine how stressful this is.
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It's pretty clear that companies have made money and their cash positions are high and this should help the market stage an advance in November and December.
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It's very hard to attribute it to an event or release because there is none. I certainly wouldn't attach any significance to it. The professional money managers aren't doing much. They want to take a clear look at third-quarter earnings.
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It's a year-end rally in anticipation that there will be some new money coming into the market as we start the new year.
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Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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I'm not betting anybody's money on the Super Bowl, including my own.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.