Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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Would I bottom fish in these industry groups? Emphatically no, ... I see no reason to believe these problems will be solved anytime soon.
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The problem is there are exceptions. You're still left with the question: Is this the time when it won't work?
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The underlying theme that's been driving the market is that inflation is a problem and the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates, and that's not good news.
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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It's still way too close a race to call, and I think the market will reflect the fact that it's still up in the air,
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It's still very painful, and it still requires you as an investor to respond to it.
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It's not good news, ... Even though the focus is on the Middle East and oil prices, these numbers clearly are not going to stabilize the markets.
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Everybody is waiting for the employment report on Friday. The belief is that the economy is rebounding from the sluggish fourth quarter. We will know on Friday.
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Everybody is going to know the same, but it's going to be less. The disclosure of information becomes more carefully managed than the Federal Reserve manages the disclosure of information.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
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These numbers were highly impacted if not distorted by Hurricane Katrina.
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The consumer price index rise was very modest. It suggests, that inflation is in the process of moderating.
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The consumer price index rise was very modest. It suggests, as I think many of us have been forecasting, that inflation is in the process of moderating. The good news is investors can feel somewhat more comfortable about monetary policy.