Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Everybody is going to know the same, but it's going to be less. The disclosure of information becomes more carefully managed than the Federal Reserve manages the disclosure of information.
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It's very hard to attribute it to an event or release because there is none. I certainly wouldn't attach any significance to it. The professional money managers aren't doing much. They want to take a clear look at third-quarter earnings.
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The most important thing is that the stock market had declined to levels that were arguably undervalued, and that many aggressive managers also realized there was a great deal of pessimism.
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One of the most important signs of a bull market is when the bull market manages very, very bad news like we've had today. So in that sense, you've got a very encouraging performance today.
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Trying to manage money in this environment, you can't imagine how stressful this is.
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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The focus has been on earnings, and when you get something like Aetna, then that's going to help the market. But one of these days, that focus is going to shift to inflation and interest rates. And the Fed is going to have to get it absolutely right in order for this market to manage even small gains.
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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It's still way too close a race to call, and I think the market will reflect the fact that it's still up in the air,
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It's still very painful, and it still requires you as an investor to respond to it.
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It's not good news, ... Even though the focus is on the Middle East and oil prices, these numbers clearly are not going to stabilize the markets.
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Everybody is waiting for the employment report on Friday. The belief is that the economy is rebounding from the sluggish fourth quarter. We will know on Friday.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.