Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Long-term interest rates are low and I'd prefer to buy when rates are higher and more attractive. As a federal government issuer or taxpayer, I'd be excited but, as an investor, I just don't see the appeal.
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Long term interest rates are higher now than they were in the second and third quarters, and debt levels are higher too. Yes, consumer spending will continue to expand, but it will be slower.
business spending
I see business spending recovering, but not in telecommunications or telecommunications equipment.
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.
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On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.
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It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.
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It injects some uncertainty. The worry is the Chinese economy will slow too much, and that will send markets down worldwide.
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It is a down week after some predictable profit taking following a strong January. But the excuse for that profit taking was the Fed. We walked away from last Tuesday's meeting in which they raised interest rates, knowing that they will likely raise rates again at their March meeting.
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I think the market has managed the inevitable profit-taking very well, but there's still a lot of skepticism out there,
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I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,
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I think you can spread yourself among many sectors,
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Four days ain't enough, ... It's still too soon for investors to jump back on board until you get more confirmation from the stock market. We've had so many false starts before.
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I expected the market to inch or edge forward. I wouldn't have expected this in my wildest dreams.