Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Every time (crude prices) move toward $50, it raises serious questions about the economy and earnings in 2005.
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We have such speculation in Internet stocks already that it's earnings will be keenly watched and could stir up more speculation or spur a decline, depending on their results.
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You know, we had four great years because we had declining inflation and interest rates. There's been a sea change. We now have inflation and interest rates actually heading higher. That makes things entirely different - you can't get away with high-priced earnings or overvalued stocks and so we're going through this adjustment to a new reality.
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The price is down some, but it's clear that oil is at a level that raises serious questions about the U.S. economy and earnings going forward.
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The reason for the (technology) decline is the combination of the Cisco earnings and the comments from CEO John Chambers. He basically said what Intel said recently: that customers are getting very cautious and that spending on technology is slowing.
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The reason the (stock) market is struggling is that concerns about the economy and earnings are deepening, ... We don't see anything that says the current profit recession is going to end.
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It's a trading rally, and not much more than that. If there's anything you can hang your hat on, it's that with every passing day, some investors become convinced that there's not going to be any serious fallout or damage to the economy or earnings due to the hurricanes.
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It's a migration toward value as a reflection that investors believe the growth rates of earnings are slowing. It will continue until investors are convinced that the Fed will take its foot off the break, or reduce interest rates.
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What we're seeing from Lehman is that market conditions improved through the summer, and that conditions are likely to continue improving. That's showing up in the earnings and in the detail of their reports.
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We are gradually, slowly building investor confidence that the profit recession will end, ... What's leading to the bullishness is not anything you are currently looking at. Earnings are dismal, but investors are becoming more optimistic that the profits recession will end.
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The question is when will the earnings recovery begin and how strong will it be.
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Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.
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A company like Sunoco, we know their earnings will be better, but how much better? ... As a portfolio manager, that question stops you.
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This has been a very powerful earnings season and that's what's been driving the market.