Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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It's not good news, ... Even though the focus is on the Middle East and oil prices, these numbers clearly are not going to stabilize the markets.
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It's very hard to attribute it to an event or release because there is none. I certainly wouldn't attach any significance to it. The professional money managers aren't doing much. They want to take a clear look at third-quarter earnings.
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Even though it's a bad time, it's a good time - if you have a taxable account, you clearly want to harvest some of the gains, and offset it with some sales of losses,
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Mutual funds are clearly a very big reason why the stock market is declining, ... This is the other side of the mountain.
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It's pretty clear that companies have made money and their cash positions are high and this should help the market stage an advance in November and December.
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It's very clear that higher energy prices are now being passed along to consumers, and it's not difficult to do that when the economy is as strong as it is. This will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to raise short-term interest rates.
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Clearly the Federal Reserve is getting what it wanted with six interest rate increases.
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The price is down some, but it's clear that oil is at a level that raises serious questions about the U.S. economy and earnings going forward.
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The focus is clearly on earnings, that's what it's really all about.
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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It's still way too close a race to call, and I think the market will reflect the fact that it's still up in the air,
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It's still very painful, and it still requires you as an investor to respond to it.
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Everybody is waiting for the employment report on Friday. The belief is that the economy is rebounding from the sluggish fourth quarter. We will know on Friday.