Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.
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There's no news, nothing I see on the immediate horizon, next week, that would shake the market out of its current malaise or end the summer doldrums. There are so many things to worry about, and investors are therefore sitting on their hands, not making any new, major commitments.
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Usually, when you have a stock market mania, it's driven largely by individual investors borrowing money to buy stocks at prices that are too high. And usually, when a bubble becomes unwound, it's because of margin calls.
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Four days ain't enough, ... It's still too soon for investors to jump back on board until you get more confirmation from the stock market. We've had so many false starts before.
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Momentum investors are looking for something that works. What works is technology.
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One message we get is that the stocks people buy when they're scared -- basic materials, beverages, foods -- did not do as well. Investors are more optimistic about the economy.
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What's driving the market is speculation. You put together actual year earnings, you also calculate price-to-earnings multiples right now and what investors are paying for is really out of whack. It's too high.
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You have to be careful about prejudging this - I've seen so many investors burned at the stake thinking things like 'Value is about to come back,' ... Let the market tell you what to do. Don't tell the market what to do.
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You had a pretty good move in biotech this year, and biotech really has quite frankly lifted the health care and the drug stocks recently because investors have become somewhat defensive -- say in the last month or so -- and have also, on a relative basis, performed fairly well.
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There are a growing number of investors who believe the market has hit bottom. Investors with cash are feeling pressure to get in. Good markets beget good markets.
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That's pretty good news because it means investors did not become defensive. They remain optimistic,
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It's still very painful, and it still requires you as an investor to respond to it.
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It's a trading rally, and not much more than that. If there's anything you can hang your hat on, it's that with every passing day, some investors become convinced that there's not going to be any serious fallout or damage to the economy or earnings due to the hurricanes.
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They come to me because they want special treatment, ... There is nothing that irritates substantial investors more than paying taxes.