Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Every time (crude prices) move toward $50, it raises serious questions about the economy and earnings in 2005.
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The price is down some, but it's clear that oil is at a level that raises serious questions about the U.S. economy and earnings going forward.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
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The question is when will the earnings recovery begin and how strong will it be.
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The question I get asked a lot is what's it going to take to get investors back in the game. One is leadership, for the President to take some steps and make some statements that show he's ahead of the curve.
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A company like Sunoco, we know their earnings will be better, but how much better? ... As a portfolio manager, that question stops you.
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Ordinarily, we would have a technical bounce at this level. But then the question is, have you seen a bear market bottom? I don't know if we have at this point.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.