Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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If you separate out all the sectors of the market, it's no longer the case that technology is the most overvalued sector of the market, health care and energy actually carry higher valuations than technology now. So we are starting to get the levels overall in technology that really make some sense. And interestingly enough, if you take it even further, if you go to the individual stocks, stocks like Sun, Cisco, Texas Instruments, Oracle -- great names, they're starting to get to levels which, again, don't call them cheap, but call them cheaper and interesting,
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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The main reason that Alcoa is cheap is that all of the stocks in basic materials are cheap,
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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It's still way too close a race to call, and I think the market will reflect the fact that it's still up in the air,
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It's still very painful, and it still requires you as an investor to respond to it.
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It's not good news, ... Even though the focus is on the Middle East and oil prices, these numbers clearly are not going to stabilize the markets.
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Everybody is waiting for the employment report on Friday. The belief is that the economy is rebounding from the sluggish fourth quarter. We will know on Friday.
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Everybody is going to know the same, but it's going to be less. The disclosure of information becomes more carefully managed than the Federal Reserve manages the disclosure of information.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
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These numbers were highly impacted if not distorted by Hurricane Katrina.
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The consumer price index rise was very modest. It suggests, that inflation is in the process of moderating.