Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Everybody is waiting for the employment report on Friday. The belief is that the economy is rebounding from the sluggish fourth quarter. We will know on Friday.
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Everybody is going to know the same, but it's going to be less. The disclosure of information becomes more carefully managed than the Federal Reserve manages the disclosure of information.
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To some extent everybody is a little exhausted. In the absence of big news we'll see a quieter day. It feels like we were hit by a tidal wave over the past three or four days and today is like the aftermath, picking up the pieces.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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I think everybody knew this before, but this kind of takes it from the back page and moves it to the front page, ... He certainly carries a lot of weight in the market.
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The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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It's still way too close a race to call, and I think the market will reflect the fact that it's still up in the air,
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It's still very painful, and it still requires you as an investor to respond to it.
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It's not good news, ... Even though the focus is on the Middle East and oil prices, these numbers clearly are not going to stabilize the markets.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
distorted highly hurricane numbers
These numbers were highly impacted if not distorted by Hurricane Katrina.
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The consumer price index rise was very modest. It suggests, that inflation is in the process of moderating.