Hugh Johnson

Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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Every time (crude prices) move toward $50, it raises serious questions about the economy and earnings in 2005.
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I think everybody knew this before, but this kind of takes it from the back page and moves it to the front page, ... He certainly carries a lot of weight in the market.
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You had a pretty good move in biotech this year, and biotech really has quite frankly lifted the health care and the drug stocks recently because investors have become somewhat defensive -- say in the last month or so -- and have also, on a relative basis, performed fairly well.
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We had a very solid move up in stocks in the first quarter. There's a good chance that what the markets will be left with is a great deal of uncertainty or even the belief that more rate increases are coming.
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This is a market that's become very, very defensive, ... One thing I noticed is a move back to the defensive side.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.
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The stuff that worked in the fourth quarter and the first part of this year isn't working any more, like Internet stocks, large-cap tech stocks, and other large-cap names.