Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The worry is that the lid, or the cap, on interest rates is now off.
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You know, we had four great years because we had declining inflation and interest rates. There's been a sea change. We now have inflation and interest rates actually heading higher. That makes things entirely different - you can't get away with high-priced earnings or overvalued stocks and so we're going through this adjustment to a new reality.
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The recent rise in interest rates has created some uncertainty about the bull market's longevity.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
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It's a migration toward value as a reflection that investors believe the growth rates of earnings are slowing. It will continue until investors are convinced that the Fed will take its foot off the break, or reduce interest rates.
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It's a reasonably accepted conclusion that the Fed will raise rates in both June and August; that's what the market has discounted. I don't know if Friday's employment report will change that, no matter what it says.
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It is a down week after some predictable profit taking following a strong January. But the excuse for that profit taking was the Fed. We walked away from last Tuesday's meeting in which they raised interest rates, knowing that they will likely raise rates again at their March meeting.
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This market is trying to rally. If the Fed reduces interest rates by 50 basis points, it will touch off a rally, but if we get a rally it will be guarded.
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Something has got to give, ... Crude prices will have to come down or there will have to be some assurance on interest rates before the market will be energized.
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After seeing these reports, it's likely the Fed will...raise rates at the measured pace the market is used to.
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I think it's a bygone conclusion that they will raise rates in January, but there's also debate about whether they'll raise rates in March.
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On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.