Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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What Oracle did is it demoralized the rest of the technology sector.
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Oracle set a really bad tone for things.
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If you separate out all the sectors of the market, it's no longer the case that technology is the most overvalued sector of the market, health care and energy actually carry higher valuations than technology now. So we are starting to get the levels overall in technology that really make some sense. And interestingly enough, if you take it even further, if you go to the individual stocks, stocks like Sun, Cisco, Texas Instruments, Oracle -- great names, they're starting to get to levels which, again, don't call them cheap, but call them cheaper and interesting,
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.
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The stuff that worked in the fourth quarter and the first part of this year isn't working any more, like Internet stocks, large-cap tech stocks, and other large-cap names.
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The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
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Is the possibility of a tax cut and a rate cut enough to eliminate or neutralized the concerns about the economy and earnings, letting the January effect play out, ... Watch the overall market and if the shift from defensive stocks to economically-sensitive stocks continues, it may be enough to turn the tide.
interest rates worry
The worry is that the lid, or the cap, on interest rates is now off.
include leading numbers
These are the really important numbers because they give us a first look at January, and they include leading indicators.