Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The stuff that worked in the fourth quarter and the first part of this year isn't working any more, like Internet stocks, large-cap tech stocks, and other large-cap names.
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The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
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You know, we had four great years because we had declining inflation and interest rates. There's been a sea change. We now have inflation and interest rates actually heading higher. That makes things entirely different - you can't get away with high-priced earnings or overvalued stocks and so we're going through this adjustment to a new reality.
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Four days ain't enough, ... It's still too soon for investors to jump back on board until you get more confirmation from the stock market. We've had so many false starts before.
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To some extent everybody is a little exhausted. In the absence of big news we'll see a quieter day. It feels like we were hit by a tidal wave over the past three or four days and today is like the aftermath, picking up the pieces.
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Everybody is waiting for the employment report on Friday. The belief is that the economy is rebounding from the sluggish fourth quarter. We will know on Friday.
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It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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The earnings picture is really good now, but, you know, enjoy it while it lasts. Third and fourth quarters of this year are going to be much, much tougher earnings seasons, primarily because analysts are not reducing those estimates and the comparisons are going to be very, very tough,
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The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.