Howard Archer
Howard Archer
activity approval data february hints housing lending lose market momentum months mortgage relatively several starting
While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
activity bank certainty england february interest next rates robust sector service unchanged
Robust service sector activity in February makes it even more of a cast-iron certainty that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday.
basis belief contain cut expected february further growth help interest points pressures rates subdued underlying
This subdued growth is expected to help to contain underlying inflationary pressures and risks, underpinning our belief that interest rates will be cut by a further 25 basis points in February or March.
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
bank benign contained england february inflation line overall report
This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
belief consumer despite remain retail spending subdued time
This reinforces our belief that consumer spending will remain subdued for some time to come despite September's pick-up in retail sales.
below climb coming continue danger economic further growth individual likely mortgage near remain term trend
With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.
bank below both clearly consumer cut december england forecast inflation interest january level levels looks november price rate suddenly target
With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.
bank boost clearly consumer data england hopes inflation largely october premature prices reassuring sound
While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,
bank charlie chief cut december early england interest member odds rate recently voting
With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
cut door interest keeps open rate
This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.
bank basis belief england eventually further growth interest optimistic outlook rates
This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.