Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
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The economy is so strong, revenues are coming in at a rate that no one predicted. What it came down to was they had to decide how much more new spending they could add and how much more they could cut taxes.
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If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.
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I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.
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I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.
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I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,
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I think Greenspan realizes that if he doesn't move tomorrow, he may have to do 50 basis points at the end of January, which could look panicky.
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I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points, ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.
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I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze. But everyone said all the numbers this week would be ignored, and the ISM number caused a big sell-off in the bond market.
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I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze,
months
I think it will be months and months before you see this clarified.
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I think Microsoft would like to wait until after the election, and maybe if George W. Bush wins, they could get treated better by a Bush Justice Department. I think they're delusional if they think that's going to get them out of their problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's in the backs of their minds.
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That's the question, certainly, for all our clients on Wall Street. They're resigned to Clinton getting re-elected, but the real issue is if it's not by 10 points, but by 18 or 19 -- if it's the latter, then I think certainly the House will go Democratic, ... The Senate is a tougher case to make, but in a blow out, even the Senate could go.
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My bottom line is that this not catastrophic for the Bush agenda,