Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
agree budget coming congress cuts inability next pile spending stories surplus tax therefore
One of the big stories coming out of this is the inability to get anything done in the next two years. Therefore ... the budget surplus is going to pile up dramatically because Congress won't agree on big tax cuts or big spending hikes.
chance days won
I'm at a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election,
argued argument based entire few flawed futility great past realistic security seen social
I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.
business serious
If business had serious objections to him, he wouldn't have been nominated.
adage cuts fed hikes time
There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.
concern good growing house job white
There's a growing concern that the White House is out of touch. He has to show more empathy, and he hasn't done a good job on that.
clear close economy few months negative next winter
The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.
bigger commentary concern key knows markets nobody obviously patch price soft understanding
That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.
appeal base both center cite classic election general move parties record win
That's a classic move in both parties -- appeal to the base to win primaries, then move to the center in a general election -- and I think he will do that. He will cite his record as governor, which was moderate, especially for Vermont.
begun markets maybe outcome reason worry
That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.
congress stay
A lot of actions, like going after the drug companies, will never make it through the House, ... Congress is hawkish, period, and will stay hawkish.
decide four games kerry markets people perceive perceived point red row sore three today together won
The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
affect august helps hike issues jones market people pocketbook rate sold talk
I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.
analogy personally
I personally think the 1992 analogy has been overdone.