Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
chance days won
I'm at a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election,
argued argument based entire few flawed futility great past realistic security seen social
I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.
business serious
If business had serious objections to him, he wouldn't have been nominated.
people rhetoric stealing talking three turned ugly
This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,
clear close economy few months negative next winter
The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.
drag fear hard months spin
It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
bigger commentary concern key knows markets nobody obviously patch price soft understanding
That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.
appeal base both center cite classic election general move parties record win
That's a classic move in both parties -- appeal to the base to win primaries, then move to the center in a general election -- and I think he will do that. He will cite his record as governor, which was moderate, especially for Vermont.
begun markets maybe outcome reason worry
That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.
backing candidates conclude labor last organized
The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
attractive attracts currency states street strong types united wall
The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
changed earnings second thinking
It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
decide four games kerry markets people perceive perceived point red row sore three today together won
The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
congress stay
A lot of actions, like going after the drug companies, will never make it through the House, ... Congress is hawkish, period, and will stay hawkish.