Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
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If you look at who the markets would be the most comfortable with, and that has to be one of the top criteria, then Feldstein has got to be the No. 1 pick,
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in the final analysis, I don't think the election outcome has changed all that much.
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For the people who experience it, it's a tragedy, but for the country as a whole, we can absorb it.
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If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.
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The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
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The general tone of the rhetoric form Gore has been quite hostile.
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The economy is so strong, revenues are coming in at a rate that no one predicted. What it came down to was they had to decide how much more new spending they could add and how much more they could cut taxes.
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The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus right now is the largest I've seen in years. It's good for GDP. If the economy starts to hum, stocks should do well.
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You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.
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This idea that the Fed is close to done is very puzzling,
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And forget about getting any new oil or natural gas out of Alaska.
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The markets would be perfectly happy with gridlock.
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The markets until recently have been oblivious to the possibility of a Kerry win.