Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere
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I think it (Friday's report) is incredibly important from a market point of view. But I'm not sure that swing voters in rural Ohio are going to be into the non-farm payroll number.
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I think it's bad karma when you start talking down your own currency; it smacks of desperation. If this turns into a rout, that will prove that classic adage -- be careful what you wish for.
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It gives the bond market a comfort level that you have a replacement just as vigilant on inflation as Greenspan was.
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I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.
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I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,
appearance climate
There is a new climate in Washington. Even the appearance of impropriety can do in a career.
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If the dollar were to threaten below 120 yen again, they'll intervene again. I think they've got to improve their export sector. They've got to export their way out of this.
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He needs to restore investor confidence, ... It's extremely unlikely he would say anything that would be viewed negatively by the markets. He's going to make it clear that we are not looking at the abyss and we are not looking at a major recession.
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I personally think the 1992 analogy has been overdone.
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By the middle of the fall, if there's a feeling that the economy has withstood this blow, then Congress might be able to return to a more traditional agenda.
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The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
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I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
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If the President is really crippled I would look at the dollar to see whether there really is a market impact,