Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
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The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.
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By the middle of the fall, if there's a feeling that the economy has withstood this blow, then Congress might be able to return to a more traditional agenda.
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They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
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The economy is so strong, revenues are coming in at a rate that no one predicted. What it came down to was they had to decide how much more new spending they could add and how much more they could cut taxes.
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The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus right now is the largest I've seen in years. It's good for GDP. If the economy starts to hum, stocks should do well.
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You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.
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The wording of the statement will be very significant ? does it make it clear that the Fed is prepared to do more. It will be an important clue about what we might get going forward.
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Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.
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Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,
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You have to say that it could be a hollow victory, a pyrrhic victory, for the eventual winner if you will. We had a situation back in 1876, I'm told, where Rutherford B. Hayes won, but he was called Ruther 'fraud' B. Hayes for his whole term, and I think there's going to be a lot of sniping at the eventual winner as someone perhaps who won a tainted election,
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We should have economic growth of more than 3 percent this quarter. I think the Fed is concerned about a possible housing bubble and about us getting close to full employment. I think this is one of the rare occasions were the market has it wrong.