Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
eventual hollow perhaps situation tainted victory winner won
You have to say that it could be a hollow victory, a pyrrhic victory, for the eventual winner if you will. We had a situation back in 1876, I'm told, where Rutherford B. Hayes won, but he was called Ruther 'fraud' B. Hayes for his whole term, and I think there's going to be a lot of sniping at the eventual winner as someone perhaps who won a tainted election,
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Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
chance days won
I'm at a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election,
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
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You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.
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I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.
congress efforts hangover spending tax type
I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.
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I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,
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I think Greenspan realizes that if he doesn't move tomorrow, he may have to do 50 basis points at the end of January, which could look panicky.
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I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points, ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.
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I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze. But everyone said all the numbers this week would be ignored, and the ISM number caused a big sell-off in the bond market.
impossible number
I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze,
months
I think it will be months and months before you see this clarified.