Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
agree budget coming congress cuts inability next pile spending stories surplus tax therefore
One of the big stories coming out of this is the inability to get anything done in the next two years. Therefore ... the budget surplus is going to pile up dramatically because Congress won't agree on big tax cuts or big spending hikes.
congress stay
A lot of actions, like going after the drug companies, will never make it through the House, ... Congress is hawkish, period, and will stay hawkish.
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By the middle of the fall, if there's a feeling that the economy has withstood this blow, then Congress might be able to return to a more traditional agenda.
congress efforts hangover spending tax type
I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.
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If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
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The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
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The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
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It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
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It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
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The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
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The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
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This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,