Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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The wording of the statement will be very significant ? does it make it clear that the Fed is prepared to do more. It will be an important clue about what we might get going forward.
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We should have economic growth of more than 3 percent this quarter. I think the Fed is concerned about a possible housing bubble and about us getting close to full employment. I think this is one of the rare occasions were the market has it wrong.
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If they exchange gold wedding bands (the) price of gold will go up. If they travel to Europe on their honeymoon, the dollar will strengthen. If (Treasury Secretary) Robert Rubin and other administration officials are there, the Fed won't tighten again.
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There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.
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I think at the Fed they believe we're getting near full employment. You've got unit labor costs going up. If we get a very strong jobs number, I don't totally rule out a 50-basis point (half of a percentage point) hike in June.
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If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.
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You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.
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This idea that the Fed is close to done is very puzzling,
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Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
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Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.
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Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,
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You have to say that it could be a hollow victory, a pyrrhic victory, for the eventual winner if you will. We had a situation back in 1876, I'm told, where Rutherford B. Hayes won, but he was called Ruther 'fraud' B. Hayes for his whole term, and I think there's going to be a lot of sniping at the eventual winner as someone perhaps who won a tainted election,