Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
bad clearly economy expecting good jason labor markets number people secretary sending signal underlying wonder
Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
clear clue fed might prepared statement
The wording of the statement will be very significant ? does it make it clear that the Fed is prepared to do more. It will be an important clue about what we might get going forward.
clear close economy few months negative next winter
The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.
bush clear
I think Bush would be a clear favorite.
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He needs to restore investor confidence, ... It's extremely unlikely he would say anything that would be viewed negatively by the markets. He's going to make it clear that we are not looking at the abyss and we are not looking at a major recession.
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
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The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
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The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
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It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
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It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
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The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
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The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
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This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,