Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.
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These numbers are slightly dated, but they show that the inventory liquidation period is over, and that (the) drag on the economy is probably behind us.
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If you look back at the'70s and'80s, the Fed was perceived to be the man behind the curtains. Today, it's looked at as a more prominent player. I'd say (Greenspan's) better known than members of the Supreme Court, and that wasn't true of his predecessors.
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The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
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Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
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Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
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There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
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Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
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We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.
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We had seen the daily and weekly sentiment surveys show a small dip in consumer attitudes at the end of January. Some of that could have been related to the late January rise in energy prices.
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Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.
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We got good news on inflation. People anticipate that with inflation still very low, the Fed will stay on hold for awhile.
buying consumers
It does show consumers are in a buying mood,
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It is encouraging that consumers are taking the negative things that are happening recently. Possibly the employment situation is outweighing other concerns.