Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
close commodity economy hikes june members minutes past prices rate series since sounds stale until
While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
fed leads rate series
That leads to expectations that the Fed is still going with its series of rate hikes.
below claims continues create drop economic economy expect growth jobs labor market million month rate remaining remains solid
Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
couple forth hike june next odds rate
It's going to be volatile. The odds for a rate hike in June will go back and forth for the next couple of months.
counsel cut dragon early fight inflation markets november rates rejected tried urged
Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.
added boost changed cut december expecting federal funds limit low rate saying stock thinking today
We're back to expecting a rate cut on December 11. Meyer changed people's thinking by essentially saying there's no limit as to how low (the federal funds rate) could go and today we're getting an added boost from the (weak) stock trade.
bit cause consistent early environment increase inflation lay momentum pressures rate resources slack sort spill taken
This is consistent with the idea that slack resources have been taken up in the economy. There is considerable momentum and this is the sort of environment where inflation pressures can spill over and actually cause an increase in the rate of inflation, so it is a bit early for them (the Fed) to lay down their saber.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
final funds greenspan hikes instead markets meeting music prepared rate statement
The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.
below chance claims continues good number quite rate stayed
The jobless claims number went up quite a bit, but the idea here is that because it stayed below 300,000 there's a good chance that the U.S. unemployment rate continues to fall.
adding drawing fed fuel global guard market markets nearer raises rates rebound reckoning reminded stock
The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.
decided path people prices resistance selling
The selling abated, prices stabilized and people decided the path of least resistance is up.
country entire production running
Manufacturing production in the entire country is running flat-out at the moment.