Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
decided path people prices resistance selling
The selling abated, prices stabilized and people decided the path of least resistance is up.
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
close commodity economy hikes june members minutes past prices rate series since sounds stale until
While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
consumer fears gasoline higher home oil prices rise spending
consumer spending has not been dented by the hurricane-inspired rise in gasoline prices and fears of higher home heating oil bills.
commodity inflation matter prices start time
It may be just a matter of time before the public's inflation expectations start to rise. Commodity prices are soaring.
bond gasoline prices rally reasons rising soft tough
Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.
anecdotal consumer core costs despite energy far fed prices rising signs smoke
As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.
economy energy higher inflation prices providing remains
Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
country entire production running
Manufacturing production in the entire country is running flat-out at the moment.
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
business capital coming equipment housing purchases slack spending strong timing
Business capital spending is coming on strong and the timing of these equipment purchases could not be better. Business spending will take up the slack as the housing slowdown cools consumers' appetites.
fed officials point suggest
There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.
broken budget constrain continue despite effort ink likely record records red remains side spending
The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.
credit due
We were due for a pullback in credit,