Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
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Expectations of Fed action have gone though the roof. The market is looking for two 25-basis-point moves and one 50-basis-point move before the presidential election.
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Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.
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Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
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Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
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A lot of selling came in around 9 o'clock because Freddie Mac priced a large 10-year note, their benchmark security. Right at the pricing of that note, the Treasury market went down and it wasn't able to recover.
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The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.
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The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.
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The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
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While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
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We were due for a pullback in credit,
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There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.
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The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.
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Business capital spending is coming on strong and the timing of these equipment purchases could not be better. Business spending will take up the slack as the housing slowdown cools consumers' appetites.
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There is considerable momentum here that will not be easily slowed. This economy is strong, and it is likely to surprise on the upside.