Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
fed leads rate series
That leads to expectations that the Fed is still going with its series of rate hikes.
below claims continues create drop economic economy expect growth jobs labor market million month rate remaining remains solid
Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
bonds buy economy feeling giving juice losses stock weak
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
indicate reading softer
It may come down to 59.5. This reading would not indicate a softer economy.
commodity inflation matter prices start time
It may be just a matter of time before the public's inflation expectations start to rise. Commodity prices are soaring.
couple forth hike june next odds rate
It's going to be volatile. The odds for a rate hike in June will go back and forth for the next couple of months.
bond gasoline prices rally reasons rising soft tough
Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.
easily economy economy-and-economics likely momentum surprise
There is considerable momentum here that will not be easily slowed. This economy is strong, and it is likely to surprise on the upside.
counsel cut dragon early fight inflation markets november rates rejected tried urged
Unfortunately, I think they tried to fight the inflation dragon a little too long, and rejected the counsel of the markets which urged them to cut rates as early as November that year.
added boost changed cut december expecting federal funds limit low rate saying stock thinking today
We're back to expecting a rate cut on December 11. Meyer changed people's thinking by essentially saying there's no limit as to how low (the federal funds rate) could go and today we're getting an added boost from the (weak) stock trade.
benchmark came large mac market pricing selling treasury
A lot of selling came in around 9 o'clock because Freddie Mac priced a large 10-year note, their benchmark security. Right at the pricing of that note, the Treasury market went down and it wasn't able to recover.
business immense inflation pressures sidelines stage
They're not on the sidelines yet. The inflation pressures are immense at this stage of the business cycle.
auction bid bigger charts demand indirect note november percent strong
There was very strong demand -- off the charts -- from the indirect bid -- about 65 percent, bigger than the 55.6 percent at the 10-year note auction in November 2005.
economic economy given growth heart jobs number result risks sector service services solid strong
This is a very solid result for the service sector given all the risks to the economic growth outlook. The services sector is the heart of the economy where most of the new jobs are created, so a strong number bodes well for the outlook.