Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
action fed gone looking market moves though
Expectations of Fed action have gone though the roof. The market is looking for two 25-basis-point moves and one 50-basis-point move before the presidential election.
close commodity economy hikes june members minutes past prices rate series since sounds stale until
While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
business capital coming equipment housing purchases slack spending strong timing
Business capital spending is coming on strong and the timing of these equipment purchases could not be better. Business spending will take up the slack as the housing slowdown cools consumers' appetites.
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
bit concerned continues economy fed raise slack taking
I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.
cars certainly consumer keeping pivotal quarter seem spending starting turning wheels
Cars seem to be pivotal in keeping the wheels of consumer spending turning and certainly this quarter is starting out with a thud.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
economy energy higher inflation prices providing remains
Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
collapse creating economy fears housing jobs market million workers year
The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
economy economy-and-economics hit inflation last level surprised tested upside week yields
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.
assumed curve fed
The curve should be flattening if the Fed is assumed to be still tightening.
final funds greenspan hikes instead markets meeting music prepared rate statement
The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.
adding drawing fed fuel global guard market markets nearer raises rates rebound reckoning reminded stock
The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.