Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
anecdotal consumer core costs despite energy far fed prices rising signs smoke
As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.
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This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale.
budget budgets number quite
This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.
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Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
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The Fed is still going to be on guard in terms of monitoring inflationary pressures, but this has to be good news today.
bit cause consistent early environment increase inflation lay momentum pressures rate resources slack sort spill taken
This is consistent with the idea that slack resources have been taken up in the economy. There is considerable momentum and this is the sort of environment where inflation pressures can spill over and actually cause an increase in the rate of inflation, so it is a bit early for them (the Fed) to lay down their saber.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
bit concerned continues economy fed raise slack taking
I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.
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The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
economy economy-and-economics hit inflation last level surprised tested upside week yields
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.
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The curve should be flattening if the Fed is assumed to be still tightening.
bonds economy eyes falling fed growing jobs keeps pickup stocks worried
All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.
boost core details given inflation percent personal preferred report revised
The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter,
final funds greenspan hikes instead markets meeting music prepared rate statement
The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.