Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
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Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
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While it sounds as if most members see that the series of rate hikes since June 2004 is close to the end, it's not over until the economy slows. The minutes are a little past their stale date. Commodity prices are soaring.
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It's not like the deficits back in the Reagan years because the economy is much larger now, so theoretically we can handle this amount of debt.
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Consumers are more optimistic during this holiday season, and retailers hope this means that they will hear the ringing of cash registers in what has been a lackluster sales period so far. This augurs well for a continued expansion of the economy next year.
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Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
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Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
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There is considerable momentum here that will not be easily slowed. This economy is strong, and it is likely to surprise on the upside.
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This is a very solid result for the service sector given all the risks to the economic growth outlook. The services sector is the heart of the economy where most of the new jobs are created, so a strong number bodes well for the outlook.
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Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
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I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.
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The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
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The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.
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All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.
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The selling abated, prices stabilized and people decided the path of least resistance is up.