Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
capable deputy five grooming larry last summers treasury
Larry Summers is a very capable guy. He's been Rubin's deputy for the last five years or so, and Rubin has been grooming him to take on the responsibilities of being the Treasury secretary.
ease late soon
I think they may ease as soon as late January.
biggest billion increase oil otherwise prices rising risk robust shaping sustained
Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery. Every $1 increase in the price of oil drains about $5 billion from the U.S. economy, if sustained for a year.
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Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
entirely initial rate rises
If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.
attitude believe ease fed last rather remarks testimony
Greenspan's testimony was balanced. We believe today's remarks were enough to think that the Fed will take a 'wait and see' attitude rather than ease one last time.
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He is extremely optimistic on technology, its impact on productivity and the benefits it has to our economy. We believe Alan Greenspan does not see any burning need to further tighten policy, assuming the economy is slowing as it has been indicating so far.
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The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place.
further labor market
A further deterioration in the labor market is inevitable.
core fall inflation percent year
In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.
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The economy is doing better than anyone three or four months ago thought it could do. While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had.
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The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.
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The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
economy economy-and-economics hints remains
The economy remains weak, but hints of stabilization are emerging.