Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
against appalling constitution contract department enter goes police
It's appalling that the police department can enter into a contract that goes against the Constitution.
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That's really going to tell the tale of whether the (U.S. Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates or not. It will probably determine whether August is a good month (for stocks) or not.
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The U.S. economy shows further signs of stabilizing, though a true recovery is still some months away. Consumers will determine the near-term outlook and signs are positive.
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The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.
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The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
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The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
acquainted continuity good
They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
greenspan meetings summers
They've already been working together. Summers sits in on the meetings Rubin has with Greenspan much of the time.
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Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
although bond consensus fearing followed market news pieces rally release relief report stronger
Actually there are two pieces of news. One is that although the market consensus was only 250,000, the bond market was fearing a much, much stronger report --hence the relief rally that followed the release of the numbers.
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The Leading Economic Index is basically telling us what we already know. Despite the declines in the index, the economy is growing, although very slowly.
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The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
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The economy is doing better than anyone three or four months ago thought it could do. While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had.
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The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.