Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
fed growth half late move occur robust second summer unlikely until
Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.
attitude believe ease fed last rather remarks testimony
Greenspan's testimony was balanced. We believe today's remarks were enough to think that the Fed will take a 'wait and see' attitude rather than ease one last time.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
behind data showing worst
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
ease late soon
I think they may ease as soon as late January.
capable deputy five grooming larry last summers treasury
Larry Summers is a very capable guy. He's been Rubin's deputy for the last five years or so, and Rubin has been grooming him to take on the responsibilities of being the Treasury secretary.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
begun far federal problems reserve resolved terms
These problems have begun to improve, but they're far from resolved in terms of problems. So the Federal Reserve has got to keep moving.
barely core economy-and-economics great inflation literally measured past prices wholesale year
This is a great PPI number. We have literally no wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy. The PPI went down, the core PPI was unchanged, and over the past year wholesale prices measured by the core PPI are barely up at all.
earlier pace sector shrinking slower
The manufacturing sector is still shrinking but at a much slower pace than earlier in the year.
believe brings four increase rate stable
The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.