Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
assume begin half happen next
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.
basis believe climax continue cut fed market past risk selling
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
august determine federal good interest month raise rates tale whether
That's really going to tell the tale of whether the (U.S. Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates or not. It will probably determine whether August is a good month (for stocks) or not.
against appalling constitution contract department enter goes police
It's appalling that the police department can enter into a contract that goes against the Constitution.
consumers determine economy economy-and-economics further months outlook recovery shows signs though true
The U.S. economy shows further signs of stabilizing, though a true recovery is still some months away. Consumers will determine the near-term outlook and signs are positive.
believe declining economy economy-and-economics good happening hard performing rising sign strong time
The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.
almost amount boost capital certainly consumer economy economy-and-economics growth half hopefully huge next policy rebound recovery second spending spring stimulus strongly
The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
bottom continue convincing economic economy economy-and-economics fourth mean monetary policy rebound signs strong
The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
acquainted continuity good
They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
ahead believe job loss mainly major order persist profit recession restore
We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.
august fed initial key path rate timing until
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.
inflation
We don't have any inflation problem. The CPI was a one-time aberration.
greenspan meetings summers
They've already been working together. Summers sits in on the meetings Rubin has with Greenspan much of the time.
although bond consensus fearing followed market news pieces rally release relief report stronger
Actually there are two pieces of news. One is that although the market consensus was only 250,000, the bond market was fearing a much, much stronger report --hence the relief rally that followed the release of the numbers.