Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
alan assuming believe benefits burning economy economy-and-economics extremely further greenspan impact optimistic slowing
He is extremely optimistic on technology, its impact on productivity and the benefits it has to our economy. We believe Alan Greenspan does not see any burning need to further tighten policy, assuming the economy is slowing as it has been indicating so far.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
inflation
We don't have any inflation problem. The CPI was a one-time aberration.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
behind data showing worst
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
august fed initial key path rate timing until
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.
ahead believe job loss mainly major order persist profit recession restore
We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.
believe raise rates twice
I believe they are going to raise rates at least twice more after today.
alive companies economy grow healthy internet left standing talking time
The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place.
further labor market
A further deterioration in the labor market is inevitable.
core fall inflation percent year
In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.