Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
core fall inflation percent year
In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.
anyone economy economy-and-economics four growth mean months percent recession three
The economy is doing better than anyone three or four months ago thought it could do. While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had.
definitely economy economy-and-economics growth landing nearly percent prior rate soft viewed year
The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.
case demand economy economy-and-economics faster inventory moving percent primarily rocket rose strong though
The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
believe earnings next operating performance sector share snap tech worst year
Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
behind data showing worst
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.